Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 0.171418 0.200383 0.232208 0.269696 0.312570 0.359993 0.416340
2025-11-09 0.120116 0.158368 0.205008 0.265700 0.342187 0.434943 0.555456
2025-11-16 0.091785 0.132547 0.186271 0.261485 0.363146 0.494732 0.676695
2025-11-23 0.071470 0.111576 0.168042 0.252081 0.372418 0.536661 0.775461
2025-11-30 0.063471 0.105735 0.168575 0.266889 0.414382 0.624396 0.942099
2025-12-07 0.052003 0.092337 0.155585 0.259427 0.422304 0.663710 1.042762
2025-12-14 0.042882 0.080885 0.143539 0.251130 0.426964 0.697304 1.136387
2025-12-21 0.036054 0.072003 0.134119 0.245337 0.434104 0.734219 1.236856
2025-12-28 0.032077 0.067448 0.131194 0.249646 0.457514 0.797835 1.383240
2026-01-04 0.029338 0.064708 0.130972 0.258356 0.488774 0.876131 1.558611
2026-01-11 0.026540 0.061354 0.129101 0.263702 0.514398 0.946680 1.725940
2026-01-18 0.023836 0.057718 0.126150 0.266547 0.535535 1.010820 1.886565
2026-01-25 0.021031 0.053460 0.121547 0.265956 0.550789 1.066783 2.038955
2026-02-01 0.018257 0.048786 0.115475 0.261767 0.558890 1.110775 2.173929
2026-02-08 0.015887 0.044598 0.109797 0.257590 0.566381 1.153892 2.309988
2026-02-15 0.013486 0.039852 0.102180 0.248311 0.562584 1.175292 2.407158
2026-02-22 0.013000 0.039908 0.105437 0.262919 0.608829 1.295276 2.697016
2026-03-01 0.011207 0.036134 0.099186 0.255558 0.608312 1.324125 2.814590
2026-03-08 0.009619 0.032587 0.092938 0.247373 0.605076 1.347040 2.921758
2026-03-15 0.008370 0.029747 0.088015 0.241658 0.606570 1.379379 3.049368
2026-03-22 0.007718 0.028580 0.087247 0.245909 0.630785 1.460183 3.279596
2026-03-29 0.007304 0.028080 0.088184 0.254501 0.665686 1.565708 3.566749
2026-04-05 0.006793 0.027160 0.087840 0.259775 0.693241 1.657325 3.830427